Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Irish Economic Depression who is winning

Or who is losing the least. State pensioners and public sector pensioners have only lost on the income levy, 20,000 Irish pensioners with a gross income over €30,000 have lost the medical card. Irish property has halved and will probably half again in the next year, U.K property has stablised and gives a steady rental 5% return. The Ennis wind farm will produce a constant gross profit of 15% (10% after costs) over the next 15 years.

A lot of middle income Ireland has lost on bank shares, those who had the shares for 20 to 30 years have probably made four times their original investment in the long run.

Mortgages have dropped considerably in the last year, Irish mortgage holders in stable employment, despite loss of relief are still about 10% better off in terms of disposable income. UK property investors have seen the costs of interest dropping to one third of last year's cost eg an IIB mortgage of £85,000 cost £699 (€1050) per month this time last year it now costs £179 (€200). The Manchester rental market has improved.

Back to the losers - almost anybody with anything to do with construction. Seventy five percent of members of the royal institute are unemployed - in reality 90% are not working fully. There are more solicitors unemployed now than electricians. this hasn't been the case since 1982 when I knew a solicitor who was very happy to work as a night shift cleaner in Donnybrook bus station. I know three chartered accountants who are now unemployed - this never happened before in Ireland.

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